Those are two very good choices, and they are "opposites," as you mention. My picks for winter Chans would probably be "The Shanghai Cobra," because of the rainy opening, and "Charlie Chan at the Opera" for the same reason. "The Chinese Cat" also has a wintery feel to it, as does one of your choices, "Charlie Chan's Secret."
This is a good time of the year to have a fire in the fireplace, get comfortable, and watch one or more of our "winter Chans."